Stock Predictions for Four Islamic Banks on the Indonesia Stock Exchange Based on ARIMA Analysis | IJCT Volume 13 – Issue 4 | IJCT-V13I4P7
International Journal of Computer Techniques
ISSN 2394-2231
Author
R. A. E. Virgana Targa Sapanji, Parlindungan, Suryana
Abstract
The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) index serves as the main indicator for the Indonesian stock market, holding strategic importance for investors and companies. Four Islamic banks are listed: PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk. (BRIS), PT Bank BTPN Syariah Tbk. (BTPS), PT Bank Panin Dubai Syariah Tbk. (PNBS), and PT Bank Aladin Syariah Tbk. (BANK). This study, using an ARIMA approach with R Programming on daily IDX data until December 2023, examines their trends amidst an uncertain economic outlook in 2024-2025. The findings indicate a bearish trend for these banks. Specifically, BRIS shows a long-term bullish trend but weak signals are present, with price predictions of a maximum of 3,406 and minimum of 1,808. BTPS remains bearish with short bullish signals, predicting a maximum of 2,007 and minimum of 1,772. PNBS and BANK both trend sideways towards bearish, with PNBS predicting a maximum of 61.83 and minimum of 56.03, while BANK’s maximum is 1,573 and minimum is 1,327.
Keywords
ARIMA; Data Mining; Indonesia Stock Exchange; Machine Learning; R Programming.
Conclusion
V. CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORK
The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) index is the definitive indicator of the Indonesian stock market, holding substantial value for investors, traders, and companies operating within the country. Within the Islamic banking sector, four key issuers have successfully listed their shares on the IDX: PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk. (BRIS), PT Bank BTPN Syariah Tbk. (BTPS), PT Bank Panin Dubai Syariah Tbk. (PNBS), and PT Bank Aladin Syariah Tbk. (BANK).
As a formidable force in the IDX, Islamic banking is poised to make a significant impact following its listing. However, the upcoming political years of 2024-2025, combined with uncertain predictions for global economic growth, necessitate a thorough examination of the trend directions for these four Islamic commercial banks. In this study, we will employ the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) approach, leveraging a machine learning methodology through R programming. The analysis will use daily IDX index data sourced from Yahoo Finance, extending through the end of December 2023.
The findings unequivocally reveal that all four Islamic banks are currently exhibiting bearish trends. Looking ahead to 2024, we anticipate these banks will maintain a sideways trend, consistently oscillating between bullish and bearish conditions. Here’s a comprehensive breakdown of the trend analysis for each bank:
PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk. (BRIS) : The long-term trend remains steadfastly bullish. Even though there are signals suggesting a potential bearish shift, these indications are weak and suggest a sideways trend is more likely. The maximum upper price prediction for 2023 is 3,406, with a minimum of 1,808. The maximum low price prediction stands at 1,673.94, with a minimum of 1,487.90.
PT Bank BTPN Syariah Tbk. (BTPS) : This bank’s long-term trend is firmly bearish; however, it has experienced a shift toward a short-term bullish signal. The maximum upper price prediction is set at 2,006.81, while the minimum is 1,771.67. Predictions indicate a maximum low price of 1,610.42 and a minimum of 1,402.58.
PT Bank Panin Dubai Syariah Tbk. (PNBS) : The long-term trend is distinctly sideways, trending towards bearishness, although a short-term bullish signal is evident. The maximum upper price prediction is 61.83, and the minimum is 56.03. The maximum low price prediction is 51.91, with a minimum of 47.15.
PT Bank Aladin Syariah Tbk. (BANK) : Likewise, BANK’s long-term trend is sideways, leaning towards bearishness, despite showing potential for a short-term bullish signal. The maximum upper price prediction is 1,573.12, with a minimum of 1,326.84. The maximum low price prediction is set at 1,181.05, while the minimum is 981.17.
This analysis unequivocally highlights the future trajectory of these Islamic banks on the IDX, providing crucial insights for stakeholders in the sector.
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How to Cite This Paper
R. A. E. Virgana Targa Sapanji, Parlindungan, Suryana (2026). Stock Predictions for Four Islamic Banks on the Indonesia Stock Exchange Based on ARIMA Analysis. International Journal of Computer Techniques, 13(4). ISSN: 2394-2231.
